PIT⇄PHI

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$0.0M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2015 odds 59% → 62% (+2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Antonio BastardoP·29y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net +$0.0M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2015 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joely RodríguezP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.