CLE⇄PIT

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2022 odds 45% → 46% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

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PITPIT Ben Cherington net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.8 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yu ChangSS·26y·R/R

+$8.1M+$8.1M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.