ANA⇄TBR

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$10.4M net +2.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2013 odds 8% → 9% (+1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dane De La RosaP·30y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

#726 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.23 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Andrew Friedman net −$10.4M net -2.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $32M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2013 odds 65% → 60% (-5.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve GeltzP·25y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.