DET⇄ANA

DETDET Randy Smith net +$37.6M net +15.8

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · +$34.4M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · 15.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1996 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Damion Easley2B·26y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$34.4M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 15.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$37.6M net -15.8

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $24M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.8 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1996 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg GohrP·28y·R/R

+$11.4M+$11.4M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#21 overall draft pick → 0.46/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.