MIN⇄MIA

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.3 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2026 odds 6.1% → 6.3% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Garrett ActonP·28y·L/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#1046 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.39 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Peter Bendix net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Logan WhitakerP·26y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#578 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.