NYM⇄DET

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net +$13.6M net +3.7

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $36M expected surplus · +$13.6M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 3.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1994 odds 1% → 1% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rico Brogna1B·24y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

#26 overall draft pick → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.6/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Jerry Walker net −$13.6M net -3.7

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $29M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1994 odds 4% → 2% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alan Zinter1B·26y·B/R

+$9.3M+$9.3M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#24 overall draft pick → 0.50/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.