ANA⇄SFG

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net −$1.6M net +0.1

received −$2.4M−$3.2M ± $7M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2005 odds 47% → 47% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason ChristiansenP·35y·R/L

−$2.3M−$3.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$1.6M net -0.1

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $35M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2005 odds 2% → 2% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ronnie RayP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#414 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dusty BergmanP·27y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#191 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.