ATL⇄MIL

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$28.8M net +2.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $12M expected surplus · +$34.4M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 4.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1998 odds 99% → 100% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gerald WilliamsOF·31y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$34.4M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 4.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.57 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$28.8M net -2.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1998 odds 3% → 2% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chad FoxP·27y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

#633 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.