ANA⇄CLE

ANAANA Mike Port net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $38M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 5 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1988 odds 5% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian DorsettC·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 5 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Hank Peters net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1988 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Colby WardP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#285 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.