NYM⇄COL

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$8.0M net +1.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2001 odds 5% → 6% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ender Chavez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$8.0M net -1.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $16M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · -1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2001 odds 27% → 26% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary BennettC·29y·R/R

+$0.1M+$0.1M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized -1.2

Prior

#284 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.