OAK⇄LAD

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2017 odds 3% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jordan Tarsovich3B·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#672 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2017 odds 91% → 91% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brett EibnerOF·28y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#54 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.