OAK⇄MIN

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net +$0.0M net +0.4

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.5 ± 5 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Joe KlinkP·26y·L/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 5 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net +$0.0M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Russ Kibler

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.