MIA⇄ARI

MIAMIA Michael Hill net +$2.4M net +0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2021 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zach PopP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#220 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$2.4M net -0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler Jones

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.