SDP⇄DET

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$5.6M net +0.1

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $18M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 2.5 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1998 odds 32% → 33% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott SandersP·29y·R/R

+$15.4M+$15.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.23/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net +$5.6M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1998 odds 6% → 6% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rod LindseyOF·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#1074 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.