ARI⇄TOR

ARIARI Dave Stewart net +$2.4M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2015 odds 10% → 10% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dawel Lugo2B/3B·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Alex Anthopoulos net −$2.4M net -0.2

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $10M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2015 odds 89% → 89% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cliff Pennington2B/SS·31y·B/R

+$3.1M+$3.1M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.15/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.