MIL⇄SDP

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$10.4M net +7.2

received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $54M expected surplus · +$27.2M realized received 6.6 ± 7 expected · 13.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1992 odds 58% → 21% (-36.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ricky BonesP·23y·R/R

+$28.2M+$28.2M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 4.2± 4 exp WARrealized 3.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.76/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

José ValentínSS·22y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$15.2M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 9.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matt MieskeOF·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#456 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net +$10.4M net -7.2

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $23M expected surplus · +$37.6M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 6.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1992 odds 17% → 51% (+33.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary SheffieldOF·23y·R/R

+$3.2M+$3.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$37.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 6.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.40/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Geoff Kellogg

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.