PIT⇄TOR

PITPIT Ted Simmons net +$41.6M net +7.1

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $53M expected surplus · +$24.8M realized received 5.6 ± 7 expected · 10.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1997 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon CromerSS·23y·L/R

+$5.4M+$5.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#34 overall draft pick → 0.32/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Abraham Núñez2B/3B/SS·21y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Craig Wilson1B/OF·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 6.6

Prior

#47 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jose Pett

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Mike Halperin

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

José SilvaP·23y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 4.8

Prior

Composite #33.0 pedigree (Baseball America #33 (1995)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Gord Ash net −$41.6M net -7.1

received +$18.4M+$15.2M ± $20M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 5.0 ± 2 expected · 3.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1997 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Orlando Merced1B/OF·30y·B/R

+$17.4M+$14.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 3.0± 2 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.1/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.06/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Carlos García2B·29y·R/R

+$2.5M+$2.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$22.4M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -2.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.49/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dan PlesacP·35y·L/L

−$1.3M−$1.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.74/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.