PHI⇄STL

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net +$11.2M net +4.0

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $50M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 5.6 ± 6 expected · 6.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2022 odds 64% → 71% (+6.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Edmundo Sosa3B/SS·26y·R/R

+$20.6M+$20.6M± $50M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 5.6± 6 exp WARrealized 6.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

1.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL John Mozeliak net −$11.2M net -4.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2022 odds 78% → 72% (-5.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

JoJo RomeroP·25y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

#107 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.