MIA⇄CHW

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$2.4M net +0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2001 odds 15% → 17% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff AbbottOF·28y·R/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

-0.30/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $27M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2001 odds 26% → 24% (-2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Julio RamírezOF·23y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

Composite #60.0 pedigree (Baseball America #60 (2000)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.