DET⇄CHW

DETDET Scott Harris net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2023 odds 2% → 3% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake MarisnickOF·32y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.83/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2023 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.