SEA⇄NYM

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1998 odds 51% → 52% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lindsay GulinP·21y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#441 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$2.4M net -0.1

received +$6.4M+$5.6M ± $13M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.0 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1998 odds 11% → 10% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick WilkinsC·31y·L/R

+$6.6M+$5.3M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.41/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.