TEX⇄NYY

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ronald HerreraP·23y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Reiver SanmartinP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.