CLE⇄PHI

CLECLE John Hart net +$7.2M net +0.7

received +$1.6M−$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1999 odds 86% → 88% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jerry SpradlinP·32y·B/R

+$1.4M−$1.6M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$7.2M net -0.7

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $16M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 2.0 ± 2 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1999 odds 10% → 8% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chad OgeaP·28y·R/R

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

#86 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.00/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.