OAK⇄TEX

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Cory GearrinP·32y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.69 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Abdiel Mendoza

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Teodoro Ortega

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.