TEX⇄NYM

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$4.0M net +0.8

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.6 ± 4 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1996 odds 75% → 76% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Damon BufordOF·26y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net −$4.0M net -0.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1996 odds 26% → 24% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Terrell LoweryOF·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #85.0 prospect (Baseball America #85 (1994)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.