PIT⇄KCR

PITPIT Cam Bonifay net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Manuel Bernal

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $29M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jermaine AllensworthOF·26y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.67/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.