BAL⇄CIN

BALBAL Mike Elias net +$5.6M net +1.3

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $24M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 2.7 ± 3 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2026 odds 9.0% → 9.9% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Christian Encarnacion-Strand1B·26y·R/R

+$11.9M+$11.9M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Nick Krall net −$5.6M net -1.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.