LAD⇄KCR

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $2M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 0 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2026 odds 85.7% → 86.2% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kris BubicP·28y·L/L

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $2M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 0 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.99/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr × 0.04 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Carlos DuranP·24y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.