DET⇄SDP

DETDET Scott Harris net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Kash MayfieldP·21y·L/L

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#25 overall draft pick → 0.48/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jackson WolfP·27y·L/L

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#129 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP AJ Preller net −$1.6M net -0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $16M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2026 odds 14.9% → 15.0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Casey MizeP·29y·R/R

+$2.1M+$2.1M± $2M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#1 overall draft pick → 1.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

2.77/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr × 0.06 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Gage Workman3B·26y·L/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#102 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.