BOS⇄DET

BOSBOS Craig Breslow net +$4.8M net +0.8

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $21M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2026 odds 22.6% → 23.7% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jahmai JonesDH/OF·28y·R/R

+$4.6M+$4.6M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.70 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Scott Harris net −$4.8M net -0.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.