TJ Rumfield Trade — January 28, 2026 · COL / NYY

COL

COL Josh Byrnes net +$12.0M net +1.9

received +$21.6M+$21.6M ± $50M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 5.8 ± 6 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2026 odds 0.0% → 0.0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

TJ Rumfield1B·26y·L/R

+$21.7M+$21.7M± $50M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 5.8± 6 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior: #355 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence: no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent: 1.22/yr blended
Horizon: 5.5 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

NYY

NYY Brian Cashman net −$12.0M net -1.9

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 5 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2026 odds 99.3% → 99.2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Angel ChivilliP·23y·R/R

−$2.5M−$2.5M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 5 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior: no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence: recent form -0.5/yr over 1.6 season
Talent: 0.03/yr blended
Horizon: 5.0 control yrs

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →

COL⇄NYY