Rosternomics

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Paul Ricciarini

Astros

2005–2007 · 3 drafts · 140 picks

Early-Round Selection
-3.1
#76 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-11.7
#127 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-28.3
#114 of 172
-9.43/draft
Hitter DVOS
-4.2
#134 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
17
#139 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
P511 +8.7
IF33 -0.5
OF33 -3.7

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
2006189Bud NorrisP 11.40.8 +10.6
2006129Chris Johnson3B 3.51.0 +2.5
200524Brian BogusevicOF 2.54.9 -2.4
2005194Brandon BarnesOF 0.20.8 -0.5

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
2005481.9 19.6-17.7
20065014.8 16.6-1.7
2007420.0 8.8-8.8
Total140 17 -28.3

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.