Rosternomics

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Matt Nerland

Giants

1999–2001, 2003–2007 Β· 8 drafts Β· 404 picks

Early-Round Selection
+14.2
#30 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-7.8
#99 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-41.9
#133 of 172
-5.24/draft
Hitter DVOS
-22.7
#168 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
109
#69 of 172

Value by position β€” where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
P37108 +56.9
OF86 -0.3
C9-1 -4.8
IF12-4 -17.7

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking β€” per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half β‰ˆ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (β‰ˆ 0) β€” so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks β€” who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
200710Madison BumgarnerP 37.47.9 +29.5
200610Tim LincecumP 27.07.9 +19.1
2005852Sergio RomoP 9.80.1 +9.7
200130Noah LowryP 7.62.2 +5.4
2003723Brian WilsonP 6.30.1 +6.2
2004820Jonathan SΓ‘nchezP 6.00.1 +6.0
200363Nate SchierholtzOF 5.31.8 +3.4
199939Jerome WilliamsP 4.02.9 +1.1
200021Boof BonserP 3.05.0 -2.0
2007644Dan OteroP 2.90.1 +2.9
2000931Brian BurresP 1.90.1 +1.8
200121Brad HennesseyP 1.25.0 -3.8
200322David AardsmaP 1.05.0 -4.0
20061076Matt Downs2B 0.90.1 +0.8
2000661Jason EllisonOF 0.70.1 +0.7

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
1999524.7 20.9-16.2
2000505.1 16.7-11.6
2001529.0 20.9-11.8
20035212.8 21.4-8.6
2004493.6 11.8-8.2
2005478.4 8.3+0.1
20065025.5 21.0+4.5
20075239.6 29.6+10.0
Total404 109– -41.9

DVOS = Ξ£ (a pick's career fWAR βˆ’ the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in β€” see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated β€” one star swamps a class β€” so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.