RRosternomics

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Dan O'Brien Jr

Astros

1985–1995 · 11 drafts · 799 picks

Early-Round Selection
-20.6
#162 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
+54.4
#5 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
+64.8
#24 of 172
+5.89/draft
Hitter DVOS
+163.7
#5 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
360
#4 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
OF15126 +107.2
P48131 +63.3
IF2294 +55.8
C910 +0.7

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
198722Craig Biggio2B 65.85.0 +60.8
1988428Kenny LoftonOF 62.40.2 +62.2
198890Luis GonzalezOF 55.21.0 +54.1
198972Shane ReynoldsP 32.31.9 +30.4
1987781Darryl KileP 27.20.1 +27.2
199312Billy WagnerP 23.97.9 +16.0
1989877Frank CastilloP 18.20.1 +18.2
19921Phil Nevin1B 15.123.5 -8.4
19941193Julio LugoSS 13.90.1 +13.8
198927Todd JonesP 11.22.2 +9.0
199269Chris HoltP 8.01.9 +6.1
1994640John HalamaP 7.10.1 +7.1
198935Brian L. HunterOF 5.22.8 +2.3
198864Scott ServaisC 5.01.8 +3.1
199417Ramon CastroC 4.96.0 -1.0

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
1985341.5 22.5-21.0
198648-0.3 22.6-22.9
19874590.8 18.0+72.8
198865121.1 27.6+93.5
19898871.0 29.1+41.9
1990100-1.1 23.7-24.7
1991101-0.6 42.2-42.8
19925124.3 41.3-17.0
19938123.4 19.2+4.2
199410031.6 29.4+2.3
199586-2.0 19.3-21.4
Total799 360 +64.8

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.