Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1 | 1.1 | MIN | Royce Lewis | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 200 | $6.72M | 45% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 4.6 | -18.5 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 2017 | 2 | 1.2 | CIN | Hunter Greene | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 242 | $7.23M | 49% | Chris Buckley | — | 10.2 | -0.9 | 18.9±3.8 |
| 2017 | 3 | 1.3 | SDP | MacKenzie Gore | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 193 | $6.7M | 49% | Mark Conner | AJ Preller | 8.9 | +2.2 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2017 | 4 | 1.4 | TBR | Brendan McKay | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 220 | $7.0M | 58% | Rob Metzler | Erik Neander | 0.8 | -6.2 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2017 | 5 | 1.5 | ATL | Kyle Wright | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | $7.0M | 61% | Brian Bridges | John Hart | 1.9 | -4.6 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2017 | 6 | 1.6 | OAK | Austin Beck | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | $5.3M | 42% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 0.0 | -4.4 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 2017 | 7 | 1.7 | ARI | Pavin Smith | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 208 | $5.02M | 44% | Deric Ladnier | Mike Hazen | 1.3 | -8.8 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2017 | 8 | 1.8 | PHI | Adam Haseley | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 190 | $5.1M | 47% | Johnny Almaraz | Matt Klentak | 0.1 | -9.0 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2017 | 9 | 1.9 | MIL | Keston Hiura | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 208 | $4.0M | 33% | Tod Johnson | David Stearns | 2.0 | -6.5 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2017 | 10 | 1.10 | ANA | Jo Adell | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | $4.38M | 47% | Matt Swanson | Billy Eppler | 0.2 | -3.8 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2017 | 11 | 1.11 | CHW | Jake Burger | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 230 | $3.7M | 42% | — | Kenny Williams | 4.6 | -3.9 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2017 | 12 | 1.12 | PIT | Shane Baz | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | $4.1M | 34% | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | 3.9 | +0.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2017 | 13 | 1.13 | MIA | Trevor Rogers | P P | 20 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 230 | $3.4M | 32% | — | Michael Hill | 10.3 | +4.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2017 | 14 | 1.14 | KCR | Nick Pratto | IF 1B | 19 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 225 | $3.45M | 33% | Lonnie Goldberg | Dayton Moore | -0.8 | -4.5 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2017 | 15 | 1.15 | HOU | J.B. Bukauskas | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | $3.6M | 34% | — | Jeff Luhnow | -0.3 | -5.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2017 | 16 | 1.16 | NYY | Clarke Schmidt | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 210 | $2.18M | 27% | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 5.4 | +1.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2017 | 17 | 1.17 | SEA | Evan White | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'1" | 219 | $3.12M | 42% | Scott Hunter | Jerry Dipoto | -0.8 | -7.7 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2017 | 18 | 1.18 | DET | Alex Faedo | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 225 | $3.5M | 42% | Scott Pleis | Al Avila | 0.4 | -3.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2017 | 19 | 1.19 | SFG | Heliot Ramos | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 235 | $3.1M | 39% | — | Bobby Evans | 3.3 | -0.7 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2017 | 20 | 1.20 | NYM | David Peterson | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 240 | $2.99M | 38% | Marc Tramuta | Sandy Alderson | 9.4 | +5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2017 | 21 | 1.21 | BAL | DL Hall | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 209 | $3.0M | 40% | Gary Rajsich | Dan Duquette | 1.5 | -1.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2017 | 22 | 1.22 | TOR | Logan Warmoth | IF SS | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 195 | $2.82M | 29% | Steve Sanders | Ross Atkins | 0.0 | -6.9 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2017 | 23 | 1.23 | LAD | Jeren Kendall | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 190 | $2.9M | 35% | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -3.4 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | 1.24 | BOS | Tanner Houck | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 226 | $2.61M | 35% | Mike Rikard | Dave Dombrowski | 8.1 | +4.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2017 | 25 | 1.25 | WSN | Seth Romero | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 213 | $2.8M | 42% | Eddie Longosz | Michael Rizzo | -0.1 | -4.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | 1.26 | TEX | Bubba Thompson | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 197 | $2.1M | 23% | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | -0.3 | -1.7 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2017 | 27 | 1.27 | CHC | Brendon Little | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 195 | $2.2M | 25% | Matt Dorey | Jed Hoyer | 0.2 | -1.5 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2017 | 28 | 1.28 | TOR | Nate Pearson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 255 | $2.45M | 25% | Steve Sanders | Ross Atkins | -0.3 | -2.1 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2017 | 29 | 1.29 | TEX | Chris Seise | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 196 | $2.0M | 22% | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 0.0 | -1.7 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2017 | 30 | 1.30 | CHC | Alex Lange | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 202 | $1.93M | 22% | Matt Dorey | Jed Hoyer | 0.8 | -0.9 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.