Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1 | 1.1 | HOU | ✕ Brady Aiken | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Mike Elias | Jeff Luhnow | 0.0 | -15.8 | 18.9±3.8 |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.2 | MIA | Tyler Kolek | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 260 | — | — | — | Dan Jennings | 0.0 | -15.8 | 18.9±3.8 |
| 2014 | 3 | 1.3 | CHW | Carlos Rodón | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 255 | — | — | Nick Hostetler | Kenny Williams | 23.0 | +11.9 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2014 | 4 | 1.4 | CHC | Kyle Schwarber | DH DH | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 229 | — | — | Matt Dorey | Jed Hoyer | 23.4 | +6.1 | 31.7±3.7 |
| 2014 | 5 | 1.5 | MIN | Nick Gordon | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 160 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Terry Ryan | 0.6 | -15.5 | 18.9±3.7 |
| 2014 | 6 | 1.6 | SEA | Alex Jackson | C C | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 238 | — | — | Tom McNamara | Jack Zduriencik | 0.2 | -6.5 | 12.3±3.7 |
| 2014 | 7 | 1.7 | PHI | Aaron Nola | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Ruben Amaro | 37.7 | +29.9 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2014 | 8 | 1.8 | COL | Kyle Freeland | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'4" | 202 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 15.0 | +7.1 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2014 | 9 | 1.9 | TOR | Jeff Hoffman | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 235 | — | — | Brian Parker | Alex Anthopoulos | 4.2 | -3.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2014 | 10 | 1.10 | NYM | Michael Conforto | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 215 | — | — | Marc Tramuta | Sandy Alderson | 20.3 | +10.4 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2014 | 11 | 1.11 | TOR | Max Pentecost | DH DH | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Brian Parker | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -17.3 | 31.7±4.2 |
| 2014 | 12 | 1.12 | MIL | Kodi Medeiros | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Bruce Seid | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -4.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2014 | 13 | 1.13 | SDP | Trea Turner | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 185 | — | — | Billy Gasparino | Josh Byrnes | 48.1 | +37.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2014 | 14 | 1.14 | SFG | Tyler Beede | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 216 | — | — | — | Brian Sabean | -0.1 | -7.1 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2014 | 15 | 1.15 | ANA | Sean Newcomb | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 255 | — | — | Ric Wilson | Jerry Dipoto | 4.3 | -2.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2014 | 16 | 1.16 | ARI | Touki Toussaint | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Ray Montgomery | Kevin Towers | -0.3 | -5.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2014 | 17 | 1.17 | KCR | Brandon Finnegan | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 216 | — | — | — | Dayton Moore | 0.3 | -4.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2014 | 18 | 1.18 | WSN | Erick Fedde | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Kris Kline | Michael Rizzo | 3.6 | -1.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2014 | 19 | 1.19 | CIN | Nick Howard | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 0.0 | -5.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2014 | 20 | 1.20 | TBR | Casey Gillaspie | IF 1B | 21 COLL | S/L | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -10.2 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2014 | 21 | 1.21 | CLE | Bradley Zimmer | OF CF | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Brad Grant | Chris Antonetti | 2.1 | -2.2 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2014 | 22 | 1.22 | LAD | Grant Holmes | P P | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 226 | — | — | Logan White | Ned Colletti | 2.3 | -2.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2014 | 23 | 1.23 | DET | Derek Hill | OF RF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 206 | — | — | Scott Pleis | Dave Dombrowski | 1.5 | -4.7 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2014 | 24 | 1.24 | PIT | Cole Tucker | IF SS | 18 HS | S/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | -2.1 | -6.4 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2014 | 25 | 1.25 | OAK | Matt Chapman | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 35.2 | +25.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2014 | 26 | 1.26 | BOS | Michael Chavis | IF 2B | 19 HS | R/R | 5'10" | 190 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Ben Cherington | -0.3 | -2.6 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2014 | 27 | 1.27 | STL | Luke Weaver | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 180 | — | — | Dan Kantrovitz | John Mozeliak | 8.8 | +6.2 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2014 | 28 | 1.28 | KCR | Foster Griffin | P P | 19 HS | R/L | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | — | Dayton Moore | 0.4 | -2.2 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2014 | 29 | 1.29 | CIN | Alex Blandino | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 0.1 | -2.5 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2014 | 30 | 1.30 | TEX | Luis Ortiz | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 0.1 | -2.5 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2014 | 31 | 1.31 | CLE | Justus Sheffield | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 5'10" | 224 | — | — | Brad Grant | Chris Antonetti | 1.4 | -1.2 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2014 | 32 | 1.32 | ATL | Braxton Davidson | OF RF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 230 | — | — | Tony Demacio | John Hart | 0.0 | -2.0 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2014 | 33 | 1.33 | BOS | Michael Kopech | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Ben Cherington | 2.1 | -0.4 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2014 | 34 | 1.34 | STL | Jack Flaherty | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | Dan Kantrovitz | John Mozeliak | 16.8 | +14.2 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.