KCR⇄NYM

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$45.6M net +12.8

received +$24.0M+$24.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$45.6M realized received 4.6 ± 4 expected · 12.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1999 odds 2% → 3% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe Randa3B·29y·R/R

+$24.2M+$24.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$45.6M 4.6± 4 exp WARrealized 12.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

1.55/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$45.6M net -12.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1999 odds 82% → 73% (-9.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan LeBron

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.