PIT⇄NYY

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2026 odds 16.6% → 16.9% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Camilo DovalP·28y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.66 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $79M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.2 ± 10 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2026 odds 98.7% → 98.7% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis CruzOF·18y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Omar AlfonzoC·22y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →