MIA⇄NYM

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$4.8M net +0.4

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1999 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jorge FábregasC·29y·L/R

−$1.5M−$1.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$4.8M net -0.4

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1999 odds 75% → 73% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Óscar HenríquezP·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.