DET⇄COL

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$4.8M net +0.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2003 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben PetrickC·26y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$4.8M net -0.6

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2003 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam BerneroP·26y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#677 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.