DET⇄PIT

DETDET Randy Smith net +$0.8M net +0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $17M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1997 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan MiceliP·26y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

-0.17/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ted Simmons net −$0.8M net -0.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1997 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Clint SodowskyP·24y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#244 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.