HOU⇄DET

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$6.4M net +0.2

received −$16.8M−$16.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$30.4M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2001 odds 33% → 31% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave MlickiP·33y·R/R

−$17.0M−$17.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$30.4M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$6.4M net -0.2

received −$22.4M−$22.4M ± $17M expected surplus · −$36.8M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2001 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José LimaP·28y·R/R

−$22.3M−$22.3M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$36.8M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.10/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.