CHW⇄COL

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$39.2M net +8.7

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$32.8M realized received 0.1 ± 3 expected · 7.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2004 odds 11% → 23% (+11.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan Uribe3B/SS·25y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$32.8M 0.1± 3 exp WARrealized 7.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$39.2M net -8.7

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2004 odds 2% → 1% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Aaron Miles2B·27y·B/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

#529 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.