COL⇄CHW

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$8.0M net +1.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Wade ParrishP·25y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#464 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$8.0M net -1.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $23M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ross Gload1B·27y·L/L

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

#396 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.