ANA⇄TBR

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net −$0.8M net +0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2002 odds 70% → 71% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mickey CallawayP·27y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#214 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.74 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net +$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wilmy Caceres

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.