HOU⇄COL

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$7.2M net +1.2

received −$4.0M−$6.4M ± $9M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2001 odds 32% → 31% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ron VilloneP·31y·L/L

−$3.7M−$6.1M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$7.2M net -1.2

received +$2.4M−$3.2M ± $10M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2001 odds 26% → 26% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jay PowellP·29y·R/R

+$2.6M−$3.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.