TBR⇄MIL

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.8M net +0.3

received +$42.4M+$42.4M ± $36M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 8.1 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2019 odds 86% → 87% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesús Aguilar1B·29y·R/R

+$42.8M+$42.8M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 8.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

2.10/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL David Stearns net −$0.8M net -0.3

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $27M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.7 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2019 odds 22% → 20% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake FariaP·25y·R/R

+$9.7M+$9.7M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#330 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.