HOU⇄SFG

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$0.8M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Scott LinebrinkP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#56 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$0.8M net -0.3

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Doug HenryP·36y·R/R

−$2.5M−$2.5M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.