ANA⇄KCR

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$8.0M net +2.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2015 odds 4% → 6% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Johnny Giavotella2B·27y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net −$8.0M net -2.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2015 odds 27% → 21% (-6.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian BroderickP·28y·R/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#652 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.