COL⇄NYY

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Seth TaylorSS·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#171 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jay TessmerP·29y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#534 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

David LeeP·28y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#627 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.